Introduction: The relationship between Bangladesh and India is one of the most intricate and consequential diplomatic engagements in South Asia. Rooted in the historical context of Bangladesh’s independence in 1971, where India played a critical role in the Liberation War, this bilateral relationship has evolved over time, shaped by shifting political dynamics, national interests, and regional security concerns. However, with the recent July 2024 Revolution and the subsequent political changes that followed the 5th August 2024 events, the current scenario presents a crucial turning point in the relationship between the two countries.

India's Role in Bangladesh's Independence: A Legacy of Support and Strategy The roots of the Bangladesh-India relationship go back to the crucial moment of 1971, when India’s military intervention played a decisive role in securing Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan. India’s intervention, though instrumental in achieving Bangladesh’s freedom, also had significant strategic undertones, aimed at weakening Pakistan and asserting India’s dominance in the region. To this day, this legacy of Indian involvement in Bangladesh’s liberation remains central to the diplomatic dialogue, but it also leaves room for nationalist narratives that question the extent to which India’s motives were truly altruistic or shaped by regional geopolitical interests.

Post-independence, Bangladesh has focused on asserting its sovereignty, often navigating the complexities of its relationship with India, which has been a significant regional power. The balance between gratitude for India's assistance and asserting independence remains a central theme in how Bangladesh approaches its diplomatic and foreign policy.

The Role of Regimes in Shaping Foreign Policy: Shifting Alliances and Interests Domestic political shifts in Bangladesh have greatly influenced its stance towards India. Under the leadership of the Awami League, particularly Sheikh Hasina, the relationship with India has been characterized by a pro-India stance, emphasizing greater economic cooperation, security collaboration, and regional stability. However, when the BNP is in power, Bangladesh has often pursued a more cautious approach to India, focusing on maintaining national autonomy and addressing concerns over India's perceived dominance in the region.

The recent political transformation following the July 2024 Revolution marks a critical shift in the country’s internal politics. As Bangladesh seeks to redefine its national direction, this period of political reorientation is likely to influence the country’s foreign policy, particularly in relation to India. The new leadership in Bangladesh may seek to recalibrate the relationship, focusing on sovereignty while maintaining pragmatic cooperation with India on key issues such as trade, security, and regional integration.

Indian Motives and National Interests: Navigating Cooperation and Domination India’s strategic interests in Bangladesh are multifaceted. Bangladesh plays a critical role in addressing regional security issues, such as combating cross-border terrorism, securing energy supplies, and managing migration and climate-induced challenges. At the same time, India’s growing influence in Bangladesh has occasionally been viewed through a lens of domination. Issues like water-sharing agreements, border disputes, and the handling of illegal migration have contributed to the perception of Indian aggression.

Despite these challenges, Bangladesh cannot afford to overlook the importance of India in ensuring regional stability and economic growth. The mutual need for cooperation on security issues, particularly with regards to terrorism and regional trade, remains vital for both countries. However, Bangladesh’s growing desire to assert independence post-2024 could prompt a recalibration in the balance of power, leading to greater negotiation on terms that better reflect its sovereign interests.

The Post-2024 Scenario: Rethinking Bangladesh-India Relations The post-2024 scenario in Bangladesh offers an opportunity to reassess its relationship with India in light of political upheaval and changing domestic dynamics. The revolution of July 2024 and subsequent shifts in governance signal a move towards a more assertive Bangladesh that seeks to reclaim its sovereignty in foreign policy, free from external influence.

Bangladesh's response to India’s regional dominance may evolve to emphasize self-reliance and independent foreign policy choices. This recalibration is likely to involve strengthening ties with neighboring countries and international partners while addressing longstanding issues with India, such as the Teesta water-sharing agreement, border security, and trade imbalances.

For India, the changes in Bangladesh’s political landscape will require a nuanced response. While maintaining economic and security cooperation remains important, India must tread carefully to avoid pushing Bangladesh towards a more nationalistic stance that resists further influence.

Conclusion: Bangladesh-India relations have always been marked by a complex interplay of cooperation, competition, and national interests. As Bangladesh navigates its post-2024 political and diplomatic trajectory, the need to assert sovereignty while ensuring regional cooperation will be central to shaping the future of the bilateral relationship. The new leadership in Bangladesh may seek to recalibrate this relationship, balancing the economic opportunities offered by India with a more self-assertive foreign policy that reflects Bangladesh’s national aspirations. The challenge for both countries will be to strike a balance between cooperation and sovereignty, ensuring that the partnership remains mutually beneficial without compromising the sovereignty of Bangladesh.

This write-up is brought to you by IILD Idea Lab.