As global geopolitics brace for the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House, Bangladesh finds itself at a critical juncture. The second Trump presidency promises significant impacts across South Asia, with ripple effects touching Bangladesh’s economy, security, and climate resilience. How should Dhaka navigate these turbulent waters?

Geopolitical Tug-of-War

Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy, anchored in the QUAD and the AUKUS alliance, aims to counter China’s dominance. Bangladesh, with its strategic location in the Bay of Bengal, will be a key player. However, the transactional nature of Trump’s diplomacy may intensify U.S. pressure on Dhaka to align with Washington against Beijing. Such dynamics could challenge Bangladesh’s longstanding policy of non-alignment, forcing it to carefully balance relations with both superpowers.

Economic Crossroads

The U.S. remains a vital trading partner for Bangladesh, especially for its ready-made garment (RMG) sector. Yet, Trump’s protectionist policies could raise tariffs, posing a severe threat to the sector’s competitiveness. Diversifying trade partners and industries will be essential for Bangladesh to mitigate these risks. Moreover, the reshaping of global supply chains amid U.S.-China tensions offers Dhaka opportunities-if it can modernize its infrastructure and streamline regulations.

Climate and Environmental Vulnerabilities

Bangladesh’s vulnerability to climate change is well-documented, but Trump’s likely rollback of climate initiatives could spell disaster for the region. With reduced global climate funding and a pivot to fossil fuel policies, Bangladesh may face mounting challenges in implementing its ambitious Climate Prosperity Plan. Proactive diplomacy and partnerships with climate-conscious stakeholders will be critical.

The Road Ahead

To thrive in this evolving landscape, Bangladesh must adopt a multipronged strategy:

Economic Diversification

Expanding beyond the RMG sector and attracting U.S. investment in ICT, renewable energy, and pharmaceuticals can reduce dependency on volatile trade dynamics.

Strategic Neutrality

Balancing relations with China and the U.S. while engaging in regional initiatives like the QUAD to enhance maritime security and economic stability.

Proactive Climate Advocacy

Leading regional efforts to address climate challenges, including collaborating with private sectors and global institutions.

Bangladesh’s response to the second Trump presidency will define its role in South Asia’s shifting geopolitical and economic order. By focusing on resilience, adaptability, and strategic engagement, Dhaka can navigate these challenges while safeguarding its national interests.

Shafiul Alam Shahin is the Executive Director of International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD)